Urgent Web Bot Update Ref: 10/25

The following in from Clif at www.halfpasthuman.com on Saturday – changes somewhat our expectation for the way things will be working out both in markets and in the defense world over the next month:

“Heads up! Reality Change Ahead!

in running our MOM (model of modelspace) cleanup of the lexicon prior to tuning, it became apparent that October 25 turn in emotions globally will be dominated by a [lock down/implosion] of the [planetary financial/banking system]. The data suggests that such things a [currency trading] and [commodities trading] as well as many other [digital trading forms] will be [suspended]. Some will never resume, or if they do, they will be in entirely different forms. There may be a [banking lock up] in many countries emanating from the USofA outward. There may be [inter bank lock downs] in which [central banks] and [wealth storage clearing houses] will not be able to function. There are data sets suggesting that the rapid shift into building tension language on the 25th originates from and is propelled by the [financial system implosion] that then morphs over into [dollar rejected by all] a mere 10/ten days (more or less) later. There may be shut downs of all kinds of banking activity within the USofA and the rest of the anglosphere.

The [sudden/urgent travel] of the [administration (obama et al) minions] in early November, under this MOM background load shows up as being about [desperately trying] to get the rest of the [planet] to [loan] the actual [resources/wealth] to [restart] the [USofA banking system].

This MOM data set can be wrong in a way that the larger modelspace can not. The MOM set is so small that if it is wrong it is usually widely so. However, the data sets here are so focused, and bring in such crisp emotional shifts relative to the same days (10-25-2009), that it made sense to prepare this note.

If correct, this is the beginning of “The Big One” relative to the dollar and the central banking system. Everything else in the modern world depends on this structure…so it will be a big one throughout all of the social infrastructure.

If MOM is correct, then the [dollar death] will be way more dramatic and waaaay shorter than i had first thought. MOM is showing very dramatic language shifts (albeit against a much smaller background) for not only October 25, but also in a very sharp crocodile tooth pattern from November 4 through December 10th indicating a very very emotionally choppy time.

So, heads up! Reality shift (time/event bump) just ahead. If MOM is correct, there will be some additional levels of [visibility] on October 10th through the 15th that will put a focus on the ‘trigger’ that will show on October 25th and beyond.

Masa Katsu! Pie up now, panic later.

clif and cathy and igor.

The usual caveats here – doesn’t mean, for example that war between Iran and Israel won’t happen, it just means if it does (which is may anyway) it will be so far down the food chain as to pale in terms of personal impact.

If you didn’t have anything else to do this weekend, you might be pondering: “How could I survive – and for how long – if there were market suspensions, hold-ups of executions of electronic transactions and all the other things other countries have gone through when faced with calamitous financial events?  Refer to any Argentinean or Icelander who’s been there…  Sure means out earlier piece this morning may be closer to the mark than comfortable….

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Webbot Update-February 17th-Obama’s Test Week?

The predictive linguistics work over at www.halfpasthuman.com has been saying for a fair spell that the Obama administration first big ‘test’ would come after we got something having to do with ships grounding, something about gold popping, and a few other items.

So, in the past couple of weeks we have been seeing all kinds of ship accidents/groundings – Just to mention a few, there were some fishing boat rescues, that tanker losing power off the Golden Gate, the tanker collision off Dubai, and then this weekend a couple of nuclear submarines colliding in the Atlantic.  And what about that guided missile cruiser grounding off Hawaii? So that linguistic set is chock-a-block full and done.   If you wanted, you could throw in the collision of the Kosmos and the coincidentally numbered Iridium 33 satellites over Siberia, too, since they were a couple of space ships.  The fallout from that is still making headlines in Kentucky and Texas after fireballs were sighted.  Linguistically, things don’t get much fuller than all that.

So what’s this ‘test’ business all about?  Well, that is open to speculation.  One line of language hints goes to the idea that it will have some military component to it and that at some point here shortly, Obama will have a chance to ‘win a battle, lose a war’ or he could ‘lose a battle, win the war”.  But, on the other side, that could be simply metaphorical as the economy seems to be in the midst of imploding.

Economic conditions are quickly deteriorating in the wake of Moody’s latest red flags about the banking sector in Eastern Europe.  Here in the US, the stock futures point to a triple-Excedrin day on the exchanges, but there is a bright spot for folks like us who have already fled paper assets and have gotten back to the 4-G strategy: gun, garden, gold, and grub.  When I checked earlier, gold was well over the $960 level, and see the chart at the top of the page for more.  Seems I’m not the only one that has figured out that printing up money hand-over-fist will water down the purchasing power of dollars such that inflation/hyperinflation is a real possibility.

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Gray Monday

I expect this morning the President’s Working Group on Markets (a/k/a/ ‘The Plunge Protection Team’) has been up & at-’em early in order to hold the futures where they were when I looked as I started writing – holding a dozen , or so, points over the psychologically important 8,000 level.

It’s pretty safe to assume that we won’t copy the 22.68% drop of the Dow Industrials experienced then. Oh, not that there’s not plenty of fear and trepidation out there. Nope. Just that circuit breakers will click in and let everyone go out for beers long before that.

Level 1 Halt A 1,100-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. will halt trading for one hour; for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.

Level 2 Halt A 2,200-point drop in the DJIA before 1:00 p.m. will halt trading for two hours; for one hour if between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m.; and for the remainder of the day if at 2:00 p.m. or later.

Level 3 Halt A 3,350-point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless of when the decline occurs.

Background: Circuit-breakers are calculated quarterly. The percentage levels were first implemented in April 1998 and are adjusted on the first trading day of each quarter. In 2008, those dates are Jan. 2, April 1, July 1 and Oct. 1.

So Black Monday? Likely not. On the other hand, the numbers piling in from around the world certainly argue for a nice dark Gray Monday.

Take Japan, please. The market there crashed to a fresh 26-year low. I want you to recall that at the end of the 1980′s, Japan’s Nikkei was up around 40,000. Overnight it finished down a further 6.4%^ to close at 7,162.90. Most of the G-7 countries are muttering things about the volatility of the Japanese Yen which has been plagued with unwinding of the Yen carry trade.

How much of the pending blow-up of the world’s economic system can be laid at the feet of the hedge trade will be a chapter or two in history book to come. However, it was ‘pie simple’ to set up a hedge fund almost anywhere in the world, borrow money from Japan at next to zero percent interest and then turn around and deploy the money for a greater return elsewhere. It was about as close to printing money for the Big Players as you’d find. Until it stops working, of course, and then global markets go into a state described by a new word I shared with Peoplenomics readers Sunday: crediac arrest. That’s where your business pressure drops due to a system trade imbalance and credit dries up almost instantly.

What’s not being addressed by the TV Talkies and Money Honeys is a question too obvious to be worthy of prime time (so we’ll ask anyway): “What happens when global interest rates go to zero?

Think about it. Oil this morning is down under $62 a barrel. The International Monetary Fund is turning on the printing presses for Ukraine and Hungary. Not to be out printed, South Korea’s central banksters decided to lower their rates by a whopping 3/4′s of a point. While their bank boss says no impact is expected on the won, I can only say “Won-na bet?”

What the bankers are universally missing is that we have globally passed the inflection point where People – regular humans like you and me…ok, you then… are looking for something more meaningful than the chance to work our asses off for 40+ years and then have collapsing paper steal our life savings before we can buy that big motor home and go collect a few dreams and scenes – which in the end is the best any of us get to exit Life with…

Then there’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the UK’s Telegraph, who’s been one of the better thinkers covering this mess. he figures “Europe on the brink of currency meltdown”. Last one standing is the game maybe?

Pravda has a curious headline today: “China may save the world from crisis and minimize USA’s financial supremacy.”

—

Not that it matters to the so-called “leaders” we send to Washington: Although they may bemoan the drops in Congressional retirement plans, fact of the matter is those plans are backed by the full faith and credit of ‘Uncle’ so unlike your plan, which may be run by a faceless pension board, they don’t have to worry about having their life’s work cremated in real-time on CNBC or Bloomberg like everyone else. Are we in the wrong business?

—

Maybe I should set up an economic consultancy and stop working on marketing and P&L consulting…maybe that would qualify me to head up the not really “Federal” Reserve. Did you see how John Crudele did a fine roast of Alan Green-spin’s testimony in Washington last week? Fine read…

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So as I look at the Asian losses overnight where the biggest loser was the Hong Kong Hang Seng, down almost 12 3/4′s percent, or the European markets where Vienna’s ATX is down more than 8% at press time,

—

I go back to my late childhood/early adulthood when I worked as a transmitter engineer at a semi-famous R&B radio station and there’s the old T-Bone Walker hit rolling n near the mental noise floor: “They call it Stormy Monday (But Tuesday’s just as bad…)”

A much cooler ohrwurm than Mary Poppins’ for sure…

—

Catching up with the predictive linguistics work out of Half Past Human, we noticed that market sage Nouriel Roubini says “I fear the worst is yet to come…” in a Times Online article. Quick: Feign a look of shock and anguish…but deep down inside, you knew it.

Not having a time machine, most media won’t tell you that a) yes, the week long (or longer) shutdown of markets is possible before November 14th. And, when it stops the purpose will probably be something like installing ‘financial firewalls’ so that those ‘notional values’ in Derivative Land’ won’t become real losses here in Human Land. And that once started up again, things will go along seemingly OK and then meltdown again…Jan-March kinda timeframe for melt #2 as I read it.

But just pretend it’s all a complete surprise when it comes along; look all flustered and go along with the crowd. We don’t want to draw too much attention to our activities here…even though there are no laws about hanging out with people who own time machines – yet. And don’t let on about your stored food and ammo…

We’ll label this one “Gray Monday!” and we should be good to go. But, like the man said, don’t be surprised none if “Tuesday’s just as bad.”

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Webbot Advisory-October 10th

This Weekend: 3 Unwelcome Guests

A dispatch from the time monks at http://www.halfpasthuman.com issued Thursday offers this guidance for the weekend and into next week:

“Salve Omnes,

sorry to intrude on your day…

just a quick note and an extract from the Markets entity posting of this coming weekend. The issue is that we have had a very noticeable bump up in emotive release language within the immediacy value set prompting an examination of these areas. The following extract is from Part Five which will not be posted until this weekend, and by then the forecast will be active and in-the-now…so just a bit of a heads up. Best we can do at this point. More if warranted later.

Extract follows: Markets entity: The current state, which is to say, the current rate of increase in [visible] release language within the global mediastream as it relates to the [global financial meltdown, aka 'death of the dollar'], is indicated as continuing *at its current rates* until late in the day on October 22. This will be very late indeed, but at that point a certain ‘plateau’ effect is reached when the [media/press] will have used all but the most [dreaded] of language, and will be [stuck/glued] to certain by-now-cliché’s. The [emotional release language plateau] is really (see chart below) more of a slightly slower slide, and it is indicated to continue within this gradient, or restriction in language until after mid November. However, to get to the [restrictions in language] period of October 23rd through November 20th (or thereabouts), we must first transit the very rough rate of increase of release language which arrives on October 10th, and continues through to the 19th.

Within this area, several sets of cross links highlight the potential for Terra intrusion, most likely on the 10th. However, there are several disconcerting ‘bumps’ in the immediacy values which suggest that some [unexpected guest] who is not particularly welcome, will be making an appearance within the [global meltdown/death of the dollar] this coming weekend. This is to say, on October 11th and 12th.

We have linguistics to support a combination of 3/three kinds of [unexpected guests] this weekend, and they are the following aspect/attribute sets: [weather related incident involving a rescue], an [assault/attack] which causes [communications (to) shred (internationally)], and last, but not least, an ['accident' (real or claimed)] which causes a [derailing]. This last may be in the political realm. However, please note that all 3/three of these [unwelcome guests] will be having their most impact at the [dying dollar party] currently involving the global ‘financial system’, and further that each in their own way, will contribute to the circumstances which manifest in very late November, and into/through December.

Extract ends.

vale, and pies up, “

Not that these will be huge event – as they are just appearing in modelspace with clarity now – likely be the size/magnitude of that stuff just prior to the Greek Olympics where the athletes were injured – popped out of modelspace only 3-4 days in advance. Still, if you turn on the news channels by Sunday night, it’s the kind of thing which would fit/play-into the unfolding circumstances.

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm