The Dow’s Bearing — 6,000 and Under

February was a chilly month for U.S. equities. And March is looking even worse. It looks like a recession is the only thing roaring this month.

On Monday, U.S. stocks plunged with the major indexes closing at their lowest levels in more than a decade as more government intervention in the financial sector was interpreted as
an ominous sign for shareholders of Citigroup.

General Electric, a major manufacturer and lender, continued its decline as the stock, once a stalwart for even the most conservative of portfolios, sold off to levels associated with distressed “fallen angels.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 299.64 points, or 4.24% percent, to 6763.29, its lowest close since April 25, 1997, and the first close below 7,000 since May 1, 1997.  We feel this warrants another look at the DJIA chart.

The most dangerous chart pattern in a bear market is the down sloping triangle triangle. This pattern is seen in the Dow Jones Index and it sets a downside target near 5,600.  The rapid fall below 7,000 confirms this target objective.

This chart pattern includes a well defined support level near 7,800. Over the last five months the rally rebounds from support near 7,800 have developed a pattern of declining highs. The failure of the early 2009 January rally near 9,000 established a second calculation point for a new down sloping trend line. The first calculation point for the trend line was set by the rally peak near 9,600 in 2008 November.

A new downtrend line is drawn and this creates a down sloping triangle. In a bear market the strength of the pattern is increased. The first feature to measure with this pattern is the height of the triangle. The four day triangle base starts on 2008, October 7, with the drop from near 10,000 to 7,800. The triangle height is around 2,200 points.

Chart pattern analysis provides the most reliable analysis method in this type of market situation. Technical oscillators which measure sentiment in the market are stuck on extreme readings and provide little guidance about trend continuation.

Using chart pattern analysis, the downside target for the Dow Jones Index is near 5,600.  This target is verified against historical support levels for the Dow. Historically there is a support level near 7,500 but this has been decisively broken.

The long term historical support level is a narrow trading band between 5,500 and 5,600. In a  bear market it is the bottom of the trading band that is tested for support.

This combination of factors suggests there is a high probability the market will quickly fall towards support between 5,500 and 5,600. This is a fall of more than 50 percent from the peak of the Index in 2007, October at 14,198. This degree of fall is similar to the degree of fall in 1929 when the America market collapsed and developed the world depression.

The end of this triangle pattern develops near the end of 2009, April. There is a high probability the America market will develop a continuation of the downtrend with a slow move towards support near 5,600. The key feature will be the nature of any consolidation pattern that develops near 5,500 to 5,600.

Failure of genuine support, consolidation and rebound behavior near 5,500 to 5,600 will focus attention in the next support level between 3,700 and 4,000. These remain theoretical targets until the nature of consolidation activity near 5,500 and 5,600 is confirmed. After falls of this degree markets do not develop V-shaped recoveries. They lay down and rest in L-shaped trading consolidation band patterns. Typically these patterns prevail for between four to eight months and offer limited trading opportunities. They are accumulation patterns and investors watch the volume behavior associated with the rallies.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/29474077

Banking Bill Bails Out China

During a time when most of the commentary and news “analysis” has been in favor of the Wall Street takeover plan, Rep. Brad Sherman of California was on Larry Kudlow’s CNBC show on September 30 to cite evidence that the legislation potentially “provides hundreds of billions of dollars of bailouts to foreign investors,” including those in Communist China.

The offensive provision is Section 112, “Coordination With Foreign Authorities and Central Banks,” which “Requires the Secretary to coordinate with foreign authorities and central banks to establish programs similar to TARP”―the Troubled Assets Relief Program.

In another strange twist, in order to get around the constitutional requirement that revenue raising bills must originate in the House, the Senate attached the Wall Street takeover plan to a House bill, the Paul Wellstone Mental Health and Addiction Equity Act of 2007. The socialist-style bailout passed 74-25 with one senator (the ailing Senator Ted Kennedy) not voting. Of the 25 opponents, 15 were Republicans.

Presidential candidates Senators Barack Obama and John McCain both voted for it.

Obama, perhaps the most radical candidate to run for president on a major party ticket, is coming in for strong criticism from supporters of Ralph Nader, who is running for the presidency on a third party ticket. An article on the Nader-for-president website says Obama has been fronting “for the most vicious predators on Wall Street.”

Those Senators voting against the legislation, known as the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, were Allard (R-CO), Barrasso (R-WY), Brownback (R-KS), Bunning (R-KY), Cantwell (D-WA), Cochran (R-MS), Crapo (R-ID), DeMint (R-SC), Dole (R-NC), Dorgan (D-ND), Enzi (R-WY), Feingold (D-WI), Inhofe (R-OK), Johnson (D-SD), Landrieu (D-LA), Nelson (D-FL), Roberts (R-KS), Sanders (I-VT), Sessions (R-AL), Shelby (R-AL), Stabenow (D-MI), Tester (D-MT), Vitter (R-LA), Wicker (R-MS), and Wyden (D-OR).

During an appearance on the Fox News Channel, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said he supported the legislation and cited a conservative Heritage Foundation study in favor of it. The Heritage study, however, acknowledged constitutional problems with the legislation and warned that it threatened “centralization of power” in the U.S. Government.

McConnell’s colleague from Kentucky, Republican Senator Jim Bunning, doesn’t buy McConnell’s reasoning. “Since Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson first came to Congress with this plan I have opposed it,” he said. “And while some of the language and the length of this bill may have changed in the last week, it is still the same old bailout for Wall Street with a few extra sweeteners intended to buy off votes. In the end, this bill still puts the taxpayers on the hook for Wall Street’s losses and takes America’s free market system down the path towards socialism. I cannot and will not support that.”

One of the most surprising votes in favor of the plan came from conservative Republican Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, who suggested in a statement that while the bill was not really so good, it was in line with other legislation passed by Congress.

“This bill does not represent a new and sudden departure from free market principles as much as it represents an emergency response to congressional actions that have ignored free market principles, and our Constitution, for decades,” he said. He vowed to “do everything in my power to ensure that this bill does not lead us down a slippery slope of European style socialism and slow economic growth.”

But the foreign bank bailout provision alarmed Senator Pat Roberts, Republican of Kansas, who said, “The plan permits taxpayer dollars to be used to buy assets of foreign financial institutions that have a presence in the United States. If U.S. taxpayer dollars are going to be put at risk, those dollars should be used to shore up U.S. based companies.”

Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina alluded to this as well, saying in opposition that “It bails out foreign investors before American homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages.”

“It’s very clear,” Sherman explained on CNBC. “The Bank of Shanghai can transfer all of its toxic assets to the Bank of Shanghai of Los Angeles, its subsidiary, which can then sell them the next day to the Treasury. I had a provision to say if it wasn’t owned by an American entity, even a subsidiary, but at least an entity here in the U.S., the Treasury can’t buy it. That was rejected. The foreign markets are being told they’re getting the money.”

Sherman is a liberal Democrat. But the other guest on the show, Republican Rep. Paul Ryan, who supported the bill, did not dispute what he said. “It’s on purchases before March 18, 2008, and the assets there,” Ryan said. “It is for―if you had a U.S. subsidiary―you could sell them [the assets] because that’s clogging up the U.S. financial system.”

In a Sunday morning September 21 exclusive report, Mike Allen of Politico had broken the story, reporting, “In a change from the original proposal sent to Capitol Hill, foreign-based banks with big U.S. operations could qualify for the Treasury Department’s mortgage bailout, according to the fine print of an administration statement Saturday night.” That day, appearing on ABC’s “This Week” program, Paulson confirmed the change, saying, “If a financial institution has business operations in the United States, hires people in the United States, if they are clogged with illiquid assets, they have the same impact on the American people as any other institution.”

Asked if the bill was socialism, he admitted it was “big government intervention” in the economy.

On Monday, when 95 House Democrats voted against the bill, joining 133 Republicans, it went down to defeat. But it could come back on Thursday or Friday for another vote.

It is Sherman who is working hard to get other Democratic votes against the bill. Sherman’s number one concern, reported USA Today, “is that the bill would allow foreign banks to transfer toxic assets to their U.S. subsidiaries and unload them on American taxpayers. The bailout at first only applied to U.S. banks but was expanded to include foreign banks with U.S. operations.”

“Under the Bill,” Sherman explained in an October 1 release from his office, “the Administration can buy any asset from any financial institution for any price. Some think that only U.S. investors will be bailed out. Major foreign investors have already been assured that they can benefit from the bailout. Under the Bill, the Bank of China can sell a portfolio of toxic assets to a U.S.-headquartered investment bank on Monday, and that investment bank can then sell those same assets to the Treasury on Tuesday. The foreign financial press indicates that foreign investors are sure that they will get at least tens of billions of dollars.”

On the House Republican side, conservatives are attempting to persuade Reps. Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor to come out against the bill after they had supported it previously.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas, the chairman of the Republican Study Committee, the caucus of House conservatives, said that while Ryan and Cantor had helped improve the legislation by adding increased taxpayer protections and additional Wall Street accountability, “…mere improvement is not the test for support.”

He explained, “The test is whether, after weighing both the good and the bad, you believe that the plan ultimately leads America in the right direction. Using that test, I cannot in good conscience support this legislation.”

Hensarling had introduced the Free Market Protection Act (H.R. 7223) as an alternative economic plan.


http://www.aim.org/aim-column/banking-bill-bails-out-china/

Bailouts Will Push US into Depression: Manager

The end result of the global economic slowdown may be the U.S. announcing national bankruptcy as the government cannot afford the bailouts that it promised and the market will not bail out the government, Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche, told CNBC on Thursday.

“We expect a depression in the United States. We expect a depression, very possibly, also in Europe,” Hennecke said on “Worldwide Exchange.”

The estimated $300 billion cost of the Fannie/Freddie bailout will probably be considered as a loss that the government will have to take, therefore passing it on to taxpayers, he explained.

“We already have $3 trillion of debt, as far as the U.S. government is concerned. These debt figures across the U.S. economy are rising very sharply.”

When the government can no longer pass the United States’ “immense debt” on to taxpayers, it will turn to the holders of U.S. dollars, leading to the eventual downfall of the currency, Hennecke said.

“Definitely, it (the dollar) is not a safe place to be invested in, as real inflation is closer to 10 or 11 percent than the actual inflation numbers given by the U.S. government,” Hennecke said on “Worldwide Exchange”.

Investors should avoid exposure to debt and stay away from leveraging on any investment or asset, including property, Hennecke advised, adding that “banks have been too highly leveraged in the past, private households, everybody.”

Hennecke’s stock allocations are mainly Asian-based, especially in the Chinese market as the country’s government has a large amount of cash and the macroeconomics are fundamentally strong.

He also suggested investing in gold, despite the recent fall in price.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/26656750/