Archive for Earth Events/Environment/Space

Drilling into volcano will not make it erupt, scientists say

{ November 21, 2009 @ 11:41 am } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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After lying dormant for 4,000 years, one of Europe’s most powerful volcanoes, Campi Flegrei near Naples, is showing signs of life.

Instinct would tell you to stay away, but an international team of scientists are doing exactly the opposite. They are preparing to drill a 4km hole into the heart of the volcano to investigate beneath the surface.

Their aim is to pinpoint the source of mounting pressure that has caused the ground at the port of nearby Pozzuoli to rise dramatically over the past 40 years. Identifying the cause would help scientists to predict how close the volcano is to blowing.

“The volcano is breathing and there is a very serious seismic risk,” said Dr Ulrich Harms, a vulcanologist at the German Centre for Geoscience in Potsdam. A powerful eruption would cause widespread devastation and could cover thousands of square kilometres in volcanic ash, he said.

Locals may be alarmed by the venture, but leaders of the €8 million (£7.2 million) project, which is funded by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program, claim there is no real risk of setting off an eruption.

“We’re not going to drill into the magma chamber or erupt the volcano,” said Dr Chris Kilburn, of University College London, one of the lead scientists. “We’re going to be standing on the damned thing so unless we want to commit some sort of collective euthanasia that wouldn’t be a good idea.”

He said that while the drilling would be deep — about 4km (2.5 miles) — geophysical surveys of the area suggested that there was no liquid magma closer to the surface than 8km (5 miles).

Even if they were unlucky enough to hit lava, the cavity of the borehole would be filled with the drill, meaning that there would be little difference in pressure between the puncture and the surrounding rock. The treacly consistency of magma would also prevent it surging through the borehole, which will be less than 1m wide.

“The idea that all the magma would come whooshing up the hole is total Hollywood fantasy,” said Dr Kilburn. “It would be like trying to suck porridge through a straw.”

In June, the Iceland Deep Drilling Project, a similar venture designed to tap geothermal energy from hot groundwater, hit magma without any explosive consequences. The only sign that the drill had hit a seam, more than 2km down, was a sudden drop in the resistance to drilling.

Despite the relative lack of risk, the project leaders expect locals to be concerned. “People in the area aren’t really aware of the project yet, but they are pretty volatile and there will be people upset about it,” he said.

Unlike conventional cone-shaped volcanoes, the Campi Flegrei has the form of a huge cauldron-shaped hollow, known as a caldera, caused by the collapse of land following a massive eruption 39,000 years ago. Smaller eruptions at sites close to the main caldera, which lies partly underwater, have left the land pitted with large moon-like craters.

Drilling towards the centre of the caldera could reveal the source of the upward pressure on Pozzuoli as well as allowing the locations of fractures and magma seams to be identified. One theory is that volcanic gases rising from below the magma chamber are heating up ground water, causing porous rocks beneath the surface to expand.

A more worrying alternative is that liquid magma has been pushed upwards and spread out in horizontal sheets beneath the surface. The drilling, which is set to start early next year, should be able to identify which of the two is taking place.

A secondary aim of the project is to assess whether the heat from the magma chamber could be harvested for geothermal energy. Liquid magma can be over 1000C and ground water at 3km deep is likely to be around 500C.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/earth-environment/article6926152.ece

Will the Hadron Collider send the world into a black hole?

{ November 16, 2009 @ 11:10 am } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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It’s mildly alarming when people with access to futuristic super-machines begin publicly musing about how they might shatter reality as we know it. It’s worse when they seem gleeful at the prospect.

Last week, Sergio Bertolucci, a research director working on the Large Hadron Collider, said that the giant particle accelerator could tear a “door” into another dimension when it’s started up in the near future.

“Out of this door might come something, or we might send something to it,” Bertolucci said, in all likelihood while rubbing his hands together and laughing menacingly.

Mike Lamont, another LHC mucketymuck, threw cold water on the theory. By way of explanation, he told online tech bible The Register that Bertolucci is a “theorist.” Dirty word in science, apparently.

Lamont suggested that anyone requiring a reality check should read Warped Passages by Harvard physicist Lisa Randall.

Naturally, we’ve been up all night since, watching and rewatching Stephen King’s The Mist. Three things: Where did I leave my tentacle cutter? Why does Thomas Jane keep getting work? And will I be atomically disassembled soon?

Eventually, we found our hyperventilating bag and took some encouraging breaths. Then we called Randall and asked, “Should I be preparing to bow down before my extra-dimensional overlords?”

Short answer: No. Long, long answer: Wellll …

First, Randall spoke to us like an adult. That didn’t go too well.

Then she began to recalibrate her converso-intellectual speech barometer (Us: “Lower, please. Lower. Much, much lower.”)

The upshot is this. When the LHC kicks in, scientists hope that a small, extremely brief peak into the up-until-now theoretical extra-dimensional world is achieved.

How will they know if that’s happened?

“What you expect are (theoretical, extra-dimensional) Kaluza-Klein Particles, that effectively have momentum in other dimensions,” Randall said. “If you see these new particles, they would be an indication that these extra dimensions exist.”

Okay, particles. Not so scary. What else is in this extra dimension?

“At the very least, there would be gravity in the extra dimension.”

Gravity. Good. Now, just in case there is something lurking in there, could stuff pass from this dimension to the other, or vice versa?

“Yes, in principle … it’s possible that gravity could take matter out into another dimension.”

Um. Is that a problem?

“No. It wouldn’t happen that much.”

If we look into the extra dimension, what do we expect to see?

“People talk about higher dimensional black holes, which is, in principle, possible. But really what you expect to see are new gravitational interactions associated with the extra dimensions.”

Alright, great. But I’d like to back up juuuust a little. “Black holes”?

“In principle, if you had enough energy, you could make a higher dimensional black hole. But the fact of the matter is that the LHC won’t have enough energy.”

So, just to be perfectly clear, the world is not going to get hoovered through a minuscule crack in space-time in the next couple of weeks?

“That’s correct,” said Randall, in tones reserved for art history majors who’ve wandered into the physics lab. “The world will not disappear.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/sciencetech/science/largehadroncollider/article/726357–will-the-hadron-collider-send-the-world-into-a-black-hole

Mount Mayon may explode anytime – Phivolcs official

{ November 7, 2009 @ 12:37 pm } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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LEGAZPI CITY: The resident volcanologist in Bicol has warned that Mayon Volcano may erupt anytime as indicated by its bulging edifice and other signs of abnormalities, such as volcanic quakes, sulfur gas emissions, lava dome at the crater rim, crater glow and ash explosion. Mount Mayon’s alert status remains at Level 2, which means the volcano remains in a state of unrest that from all indications may lead to a magmatic explosion.

“The magma beneath the Mayon Volcano is building up towards the crater, which signifies a heightened unrest that might lead to a hazardous explosion anytime,” said Ed Laguerta, resident official of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) in Bicol.

He said Phivolcs’ ground deformation survey shows the volcano has been inflated by 9.0mm since February 2008 as it continues to swell by 5.0mm.

Laguerta said that the sulfur dioxide gas emitted by the volcano continues to swing within the range of 206 tons to 252 tons a day in the past three days. He said the agency’s FlySpec instruments failed to read sulfur gas emission rate on Wednesday because of cloudy skies.

“The bad weather condition affecting Albay hinders thorough monitoring of volcanic activity,” he said.

On Wednesday, boulders as big as cars tumbled down from the foot of Mayon to the national highway of Padang following the heavy rainfall because of northeast monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas regions.

The regional center site and seats of the national government agencies in Padang were almost swept by rampaging flash floods associated with volcanic activity.

In Camalig town, Dante Baclao, chief provincial engineer, said the dike that protects the area from rampaging flash floods has collapsed.

Navy Lt. Darwin Nieva, Regional Disaster Coordination Council spokesman, said the moderate to heavy rains spawned by the northeast monsoon caused volcanic debris to cascade down the volcano’s slopes. The rains also submerged portions of the Maharlika Highways in the town of Camalig and Barangay Padang in floodwaters.

The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) in Bicol has also issued a General Flood Advisory raising alert status in areas prone to floods, lahar and landslides. These are Cadacan and Matnog rivers in Sorsogon; Cabuyan, Bato and Pajo rivers in Catanduanes, and Mayon Volcano slopes and river channels in Albay.

“The OCD advisory directed all local disaster council in these areas to be on heightened alert for possible lahar, floods and landslides brought by moderate to heavy rains,” Nieva said.

Phivolcs seismic networks at the Lignon Hill observatory detected six high and low frequency earthquakes on Wednesday, bringing to 110 the total volcanic quakes recorded in a week (October 26 to November 1).

Gov. Joey Salceda of Bicol reiterated to the military and police the need to keep the off-limit regulation strictly enforced in the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone and the 7-km Extended Danger Zone on the southeast flank of the volcano.

Salceda had said the province is be facing a combo disaster should Mayon Volcano erupt amid the bad weather condition.

He also advised the residents near the volcano’s river channels and in areas on the path of lahar flow in the southeast sector to stay alert, especially during heavy and prolonged rainfall.

http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/component/content/article/42-rokstories/5412-mount-mayon-may-explode-anytime–phivolcs-official

Deep solar minimum and the fall of Civilizations

{ October 14, 2009 @ 5:06 pm } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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*Found this on Lunatic Outpost, via tethys. Very interesting theory, thanks for bringing it to my attention!*

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm

We are presently in a historic deep solar minimum and this has implications for humankind as these periods in the history of the earth correspond to the fall of civilizations and population reduction.

Pesnell believes sunspot counts will pick up again soon, “possibly by the end of the year,” to be followed by a solar maximum of below-average intensity in 2012 or 2013.

But like other forecasters, he knows he could be wrong. Bull or bear? Stay tuned for updates.

http://www.co2science.org/subject/d/summaries/dacpeurope.php

In conclusion, the Dark Ages Cold Period has been observed in paleoclimatic data from all parts of Europe, often in long temperature histories that reveal the existence of similar multi-century cold intervals sandwiched between equally significant periods of warmth. In Europe, as in Asia, there is also evidence that the Dark Ages Cold Period was not a particularly good time for human societies residing in the northern parts of the continent.

The populations residing in the lower latitudes are also impacted as these periods coincide with increased earthquakes.

http://www.lunaticoutpost.com/Topic-Earthquakes-more-frequent-during-solar-minimum

Via this thread…

http://lunaticoutpost.com/Topic-Deep-solar-minimum-and-the-fall-of-Civilizations

Cleveland Volcano spews ash plume

{ October 4, 2009 @ 3:22 pm } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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ANCHORAGE – Geologists are on alert after the Cleveland Volcano spewed an ash plume up to 20,000 feet.

The Alaska Volcano Observatory reports that the volcano on Alaska’s Aleutians Islands erupted late Friday, prompting the observatory to raise the mountain’s threat level to code orange.

Cleveland is about 940 miles southwest of Anchorage, on a remote and uninhabited island.

The observatory says the 5,676-foot volcano’s last significant eruption began in February 2001 and eventually produced a lava flow that reached the ocean.

It says ash emissions from Cleveland were most recently seen in June.

http://juneauempire.com/stories/100409/reg_500793645.shtml

Toronto fireball?

{ September 26, 2009 @ 1:04 pm } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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I have had quite a few people in the GTA inform me that they saw a large fireball over Lake Ontario. Unfortunately, the media has not exactly been forthcoming on details. Did you see it? It was approximately 9:03 pm. Thanks!

This thing developed when? Rare Hurricane Jimena exploding

{ August 30, 2009 @ 11:26 am } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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I can’t recall one hurricane off the top of my head that became a category two within 24 hours of being upgraded to a tropical depression.  Even Hurricane Alicia in 1983 didn’t develop this fast.  I honestly cannot recall of the top of my head any Atlantic or East Pacific storm that has gone from being classified a tropical depression to a category two hurricane within 24 hours.  If anyone knows an example, please let me know.  So, why is Jimena doing this?

Size Does Matter

To get with the basics, Jimena is a tight system.  In fact, hurricane-force winds only extend about 20 miles from the center.  Add in the tropical storm-force winds and the estimated diameter of the eye and Jimena is only 120 miles wide.  In comparis, Hurricane Katrina covered that same distance with hurricane-force winds alone.  Another rapidly intensifying hurricane, Bret, was 165 miles wide (tropical storm-force wind radii) after it’s intensification cycle.  Charley was 175 miles wide.  Seeing a pattern?

Hurricane Jimena Visible - Credit NRL MontereyHurricane Jimena Visible – Credit NRL Monterey

This isn’t to say a storm must be small to intensify rapidly.  But, it helps.  The smaller the storm, the faster it can strengthen.

What’s Your Thermocline?

Jimena is currently located over water temperatures above 30°C (celsius) or 86°F (farenheit).  That is extremely warm for tropical development.  Consider the minimum sea surface temperatures supportive of tropical cyclones is 26°C or 80°F.  Six degress may not sound like much.  But, for a tropical system that lives on the release of heat energy, that’s tremendous – like spinach to Popeye.  Even more incredible is that Jimena will be passing over or very near water temperatures pushing 32°C or 89°F.

Would you like steroids with that spinach?

Hurricane Jimena SST - Aug 29, 2009 - Credit CIMSSHurricane Jimena SST – Aug 29, 2009 – Credit CIMSS

Would you like some water with that spinach?

How about thousands of square miles of over 50mm of h20/in2.  In essense, it’s humid.  Very humid.  And it won’t dry up anytime soon.  Jimena has more than enough moisture to work with.  And the moisture, thanks to the water temperatures and air temperatures, is over 85°F.  Hurricane Jimena is drawing in all of this warm abundant moisture and processing it into energy, dropping pressures and increasing wind speeds.  As you can see from the image below, there’s plenty of it around for the next several days.

Hurricane Jimena - Total Precipitable Water - Aug 29, 2009 - Credit CIMSSHurricane Jimena – Total Precipitable Water – Aug 29, 2009 – Credit CIMSS

What goes up must go out

Jimena is beneath an anticyclone or an upper-level high pressure system.  This leads to upper-level winds that are more than enough to pull the used energy from the center of Jimena.  Yet, the winds aren’t too strong to pull the convection away from the system.  This system will remain over Jimena for the next several days – possibly up until landfall.  As long as this anticyclone stays over Jimena the hurricane will be able to draw in ample amounts of energy, process the energy to help strengthen the storm, and dispose the energy through the upper levels.

Surely, there’s a catch

The catch is Jimena can destroy itself.  Not to the point of dissipation, but certainly the system can trip up over itself.  Primarily, this comes in the way of eyewall replacement cycles.  The more intense a hurricane is, the more likely the eye collapses under the pressure of the storm itself.  These are unpredictable and could happen at anytime.

Hurricane Jimena - Visible - Aug 29, 22:00 UTC - Courtesy NASAHurricane Jimena – Visible – Aug 29, 22:00 UTC – Courtesy NASA

Don’t be surprised at all if this thing gets to cat 5 status.  The hurricane, however, will likely go through a “calming” phase where all equal parts of the hurricane try to catch up to each other.  Once the system becomes in-sync with itself then it will continue to grow until:

  • an upper-level trough approaches the storm as expected in a few days and increases shear over the system;
  • the storm approaches a drier air mass – possible in a few days;
  • the storm makes landfall – likely in a few days.

In the meantime, watch Jimena grow.  This is a truly rare occurence.

http://www.personalhurricanecenter.com/3484/hurricane-jimena-extremely-rare/

NOAA: Warmest Global Ocean Surface Temperatures on Record for July

{ August 16, 2009 @ 8:09 pm } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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The planet’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for July, breaking the previous high mark established in 1998 according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 ranked fifth-warmest since world-wide records began in 1880.

Global Climate Statistics

  • The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the fifth warmest on record, at 1.03 degrees F (0.57 degree C) above the 20th century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C).
  • The global ocean surface temperature for July 2009 was the warmest on record, 1.06 degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century average of 61.5 degrees F (16.4 degrees C). This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The July ocean surface temperature departure of 1.06 degrees F from the long-term average equals last month’s value, which was also a record.
  • The global land surface temperature for July 2009 was 0.92 degree F (0.51 degree C) above the 20th century average of 57.8 degrees F (14.3 degree C), and tied with 2003 as the ninth-warmest July on record.

Notable Developments and Events

  • El Niño persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during July 2009. Related sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased for the sixth consecutive month.
  • Large portions of many continents had substantially warmer-than-average temperatures during July 2009. The greatest departures from the long-term average were evident in Europe, northern Africa, and much of western North America. Broadly, across these regions, temperatures were about 4-7 degrees F (2-4 degrees C) above average.
  • Cooler-than-average conditions prevailed across southern South America, central Canada, the eastern United States, and parts of western and eastern Asia. The most notably cool conditions occurred across the eastern U.S., central Canada, and southern South America where region-wide temperatures were nearly 4-7 degrees F (2-4 degrees C) below average.
  • Arctic sea ice covered an average of 3.4 million square miles during July. This is 12.7 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the third lowest July sea ice extent on record, behind 2007 and 2006.  Antarctic sea ice extent in July was 1.5 percent above the 1979-2000 average. July Arctic sea ice extent has decreased by 6.1 percent per decade since 1979, while July Antarctic sea ice extent has increased by 0.8 percent per decade over the same period.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090814_julyglobalstats.html

Mumbai prepares for highest tide in 100 years

{ July 24, 2009 @ 10:18 am } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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Mumbai is all set to face the highest tide of the season, which will hit its shores on Friday.

The city is expected to experience one of the highest tides in the past 100 years. It could exceed five metres. High tides above 4.15 metres are considered dangerous.

The Brihan Mumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has put its staff on alert to counter the effects of high tide.

However, the meteorological department has said that there was possibility of very heavy rains during the high tide period.

As a precautionary measure, residents of Varsova, Colaba in south Mumbai and others who stay close to the sea shores have been asked to be on alert.

The fire brigade, Coast Guard and Navy are also on alert and are advising people to be just alert.

However, a comprehensive disaster management plan has been prepared to meet the likely flood situation.

The Maharashtra Government has chalked out an extensive plan for the Thane and Raigad districts besides Mumbai to face the situation arising from the heavy rains.

According to municipal officers, about a billion rupees is spent each year on bracing the city for monsoon downpours, yet the rains continue to disrupt normal life.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/mumbai-prepares-for-highest-tide-in-100-years/493568/

Massive quake moves NZealand closer to Australia

{ July 22, 2009 @ 11:45 am } · { Earth Events/Environment/Space }
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WELLINGTON (AFP) – A massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake last week has moved the south of New Zealand closer to Australia, scientists said Wednesday.

With the countries separated by the 2,250-kilometre-wide (1,400-mile-wide) Tasman Sea, the 30 centimetre (12 inch) closing of the gap in New Zealand’s southwest won’t make much difference.

But earthquake scientist Ken Gledhill of GNS Science said the shift illustrated the huge force of the tremor, the biggest in the world so far this year.

“Basically, New Zealand just got a little bit bigger is another way to think about it,” he told AFP.

While the southwest of the South Island moved about 30 centimetres closer to Australia, the east coast of the island moved only one centimetre westwards, he said.

The biggest quake in New Zealand in 78 years caused only slight damage to buildings and property when it struck the remote southwest Fiordland region of the South Island last Thursday.

A small tsunami was generated by the earthquake, with a tide gauge on the West Coast of New Zealand recording a wave of one metre.

“For a very large earthquake, although it was very widely felt, there were very few areas that were severely shaken,” Gledhill said.

Aerial inspection of the forested fiords near the quake’s epicentre showed few land slips or other signs of damage.

This was partly because the type of rupture at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific plates meant the energy from the quake was largely directed westwards towards the sea rather than inland towards the nearest towns.

The type of quake, known as a subduction thrust rupture, also meant the quake produced lower frequency shaking, felt as a rolling motion, rather than sharp jolts which would have caused more damage.

New Zealand frequently suffers earthquakes because it marks the meeting point of the Australian and Pacific continental plates.

Gledhill said the latest quake may have brought forward a major quake on the offshore section of the Alpine fault, off the coast of Fiordland in the Tasman Sea.

“There could easily be another large earthquake in another part of that region. We can’t predict that obviously.”

The latest quake was the biggest since February 2, 1931 when a 7.8 quake killed at least 256 people in the North Island city of Napier.

The biggest quake recorded here measured 8.2 and caused major damage in 1855 in the fledgling European settlement that later became the capital Wellington.

The latest quake was unusual in striking right on the boundary of the Australian and Pacific plates and will be important in researching earthquake hazards, Gledhill said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090722/sc_afp/nzealandquakescience

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